Over the last few weeks, bitcoin has had its fair share of ups and downs. The volatility has chopped up many of the public bulls and bears alike as the market has struggled to find a consistent direction for more than a couple of weeks at a time. The market is currently in an interesting space as many macro trends have been broken. One major trend that was broken last week was the macro demand line shown below:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, 12-HR Candles, Macro Supply Line Broken
The break of the supply represents a macro change of character for the market and is undoubtedly a bullish signal. After bottoming around $6,500, bitcoin had a very strong, sustained rally for a 40% market value increase over a relatively small amount of time. Currently, the market is experiencing some turbulence as we test well known resistance points where lots of overhanging is present. Our current price level is the beginning of the hypodermic trend we saw late last year as we broke free of the parabolic envelope shown below:
Figure 2: BTC-USD, 12-HR Candles, Hypodermic Trend Breakthrough
The Hypodermic Trend is where the FOMO, irrational buying began and left many investors holding underwater positions. This FOMO resulted in tons of overhanging supply and I don’t expect us to make any upward progress without a solid fight from the bitcoin bears.
This recent markup came about as a result of a solid accumulation phase on the 2-HR time frame that lead into reaccumulation and has now pushed us into a new trading range that is currently testing the overhanging supply. The figure below outlines the micro accumulation leading into our current trading range:
Figure 3: BTC-USD, 2-HR Candles, Micro Markup into New Trading Range
Our current trading illustrates the presence of supply by
