Within minutes of rumors spreading regarding the SEC’s classification of both bitcoin and ether, the entire crypto market breathed a sigh of relief as everyone enjoyed a nice bounce. Prior to the news, bitcoin saw several days when buyers began to disappear from the market. After bottoming in the low $6,100s, the SEC news spread and a modest rally on relatively low volume ensued:
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Figure 1: BTC-USD, 1-Hour Candles, Weak Rally
Although the move was sudden, the overall volume behind the move was poor. You can see on the hourly candles that the volume barely made a noticeable blip on the radar. However, one noteworthy thing occurred during the rally: The price managed to break back into the macro trading range it has been bound by for the last 5-6 months:
Figure 2: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Macro Trading Range
Part of our previous discussion[2] centered around known support levels and their implications. The first line of support was outlined around the $6,450 values. As you can see, the price temporarily dipped below support on high volume and saw a short closing rally which pushed the price back into the TR. Now, at the time of this article, we are testing the support of the $6,450 range again. If we fail to hold support, we will undoubtedly test the support of the February low ($6,000).
Although we are trending down for now, there is an argument to be made from a macro perspective that we are actually witnessing supply absorption within the context of a large scale Accumulation Trading Range (TR). The volume trend suggests that there is potential supply absorption and we are now heading toward a potential shakeout (sometimes referred to as a “spring”):
Figure 3: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Potential Accumulation TR
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