After days and days of consolidation, bitcoin finally managed to break a new high for the first time in almost two weeks. This new high, so far, has been short lived, however, as it was almost immediately sold into by eager bears:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, 4-Hour Candles, New High
Our current 4-hour candle is seeing a relatively easy retracement after days and days of an upward grind. We managed to close a new high, but it was quickly rejected and, depending on where the currently daily closes, could lead to a macro reversal setup known as a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP):
Figure 2: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Potential SFP
An SFP is characterized simply as a push to a new high that fails to close above the previous high. This is a tactic often used by large institutions to generate liquidity prior to a market reversal. In our case, since we are dealing with daily candles, this could mean we are in for a test of new lows in the mid $3,500s. If we manage to see a reversal, the first logical level to test is the $3,700 range. If we manage to close a candle below that and our prior low, we could be in for a nasty run to the low $3,000s:
Figure 3: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Zone of Support
The red zone outlined above has been our latest level of support over the last few weeks. It also proved to be a point of resistance in the past and represents a major pivot level in our current market structure. If we break below this level, it would represent a third failed attempt to hold support and could lead to a strong, powerful move to the downside. We never retested our macro low in the $3,000 level, so we
