As Bitcoin quickly approaches its teenage years, it’s time to dig into why the fact that it has survived this long makes it incredibly likely that it will continue to survive, and thrive long into the future.
In this article we examine The Lindy effect. We cover what the Lindy effect is, how it relates to Bitcoin, and whether Bitcoin has crossed the Rubicon as it relates to the Lindy effect.
What Is The Lindy Effect?
Wikipedia[1] states: “The Lindy effect (also known as Lindy's Law) is a theorized phenomenon by which the future life expectancy[2] of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. Thus, the Lindy effect proposes the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, it is also likely to have a longer remaining life expectancy. Longevity implies a resistance to change, obsolescence or competition, and greater odds of continued existence into the future.”
At the core of the Lindy effect is human nature. As humans, we trust things more the longer they have existed. For example, most people thought the Wright brothers were insane when they built and flew the first airplanes in the early 1900’s. Today, we take air travel for granted. The same phenomenon applies to mobile phones, computers, and Bitcoin.
How Does The Lindy Effect Relate To Bitcoin?
Now that we have a fundamental understanding of the Lindy Effect, let’s examine how it relates to Bitcoin. The first Bitcoin block was added to the blockchain on January 3, 2009. So, we can calculate that Bitcoin has been in existence for 12, almost 13, years.
With the understanding that the Lindy effect states that “the longer a period something has survived to exist
