A recently published Reuters poll suggests the European Central Bank (ECB) may wait until the last quarter of the year (Q4) to raise its first interest rate in over ten years. The poll’s author details that after the conflict in Ukraine, “fewer economists” predict the ECB will raise the benchmark bank rate earlier. Moreover, a number of financial institutions worldwide are betting on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike time frame, and how high rates will jump this year.
Amid the Conflict in Ukraine, Economists Bet on European Central Bank Rate Hikes
While the conflict in Ukraine continues, economists and financial analysts are debating on whether or not central banks will hike interest rates this year. Over the last two weeks, since the warfare started, economists have said it’s possible specific central banks may not raise rates or taper large asset purchases while the war persists. On March 6, 2022, Reuters, the international news agency owned by Thomson Reuters, published a poll that suggests the European Central Bank (ECB) will wait until Q4 to raise rates.
Authors Swathi Nair and Jonathan Cable say the consensus stems from a “slight majority of forecasters.” Despite rising inflation in Europe, the poll’s findings highlight that 27 of 45 polled participants agreed that the ECB would wait until the last months of 2022. Reuters ran the current poll between March 1-4, while the news agency published the same poll question to economists last month. After the incident in Ukraine, “fewer economists” are forecasting the ECB to raise rates sooner.
“Only six economists expected the first hike to come sooner, in the third quarter, down from 16 in a poll last month,” the study details. Debates and betting on whether or not the ECB will raise
