If Sherlock Holmes ever decided to solve a mystery within the crypto community, his first one might be the curious case of PlanB and the $100k Christmas of 2021 that never came[1]. Now, as the first quarter of 2022 slowly comes to a close, let’s check on the pseudonymous creator’s Bitcoin[2] stock-to-flow model to see if it’s still kicking.
Plan Begone?
The long and short of it is that if you believe in the S2F model still, the $100,000 Bitcoin deadline has been pushed back. . .by around two years. PlanB’s S2F analysis showed that Bitcoin’s price is still in the lowest band of the S2F model. This is a worrying sign for many investors who want a straight run to the finish line.
However, models are rarely so simple and it’s clear that there’s a lot of wiggle room for BTC, where S2F is involved.
So what’s the reason for this delay? For his part, PlanB attributed[3] it to the war, expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve rate hike, and China’s mining ban.
Say B for Bear
At press time, Bitcoin had crossed the $40,000 mark yet again and was trading at $40,826.17[4] after rising by 1.16% in the past 24 hours and rallying by 3.97% in the past seven days. Adding to that, the market has been in a state of extreme fear for several consecutive days now.
After touching ATHs above $65,000, the king coin is now struggling to stay above $40,000, let alone shatter the $45,000 resistance. Naturally, with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war-making more people turn to gold instead, investors are getting scared.
What’s more, a report by Arcane Research[5] juxtaposed Bitcoin with the VIX Index that measures volatility expectations – or, put
