GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
- Gold prices[1] fall as hawkish Fed outlook shift drives US Dollar[2] higher
- Crude oil price drop limited as OPEC+ hints output cuts to continue
- US PMI surveys, Sohn Investment Conference in the spotlight ahead
Commodity market extended Thursday’s Fed-inspired moves[3] through the Friday’s trade last week. Speculation about an accelerated Fed rate hike cycle drove the US Dollar higher and soured market sentiment. Ebbing demand for anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets sank gold prices.
The twin headwinds of a stronger greenback and broad-based risk aversion battered crude oil prices as well. Losses were capped by soundbites emerging from a meeting of ministers from OPEC-led top producing countries. They hinted that coordinated output cuts will continue beyond erasing a global supply glut.
US PMI, SOHN INVESTMENT CONFERENCE ON TAP
Looking ahead, the preliminary set of April’s US PMI surveys headlines the economic calendar. Measures of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth are expected to offer a mixed bag of outcomes. Perhaps most importantly, an outcome that materially alters the Fed outlook calculus seems unlikely.
Commentary emerging from the Sohn Investment Conference may also pique the markets’ interest. The gathering may offer an opportunity to gauge what some of the world’s investing big-wigs make of the macro landscape, including the latest upshift in the expected Fed tightening trajectory.
See our quarterly gold forecast[4] to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices broke support guiding the move higher over the past month, hinting that the near-term trend has turned
