Talking Points:
- The top event of the week is on Thursday when the ECB meets for its April policy meeting. - Friday sees a BOJ meeting as well as both of the initial Q1'18 UK and US GDP releases.- Retail trader positioning[1] has little consistency in bias across USD-pairs. Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT[2] for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below. 04/24 Tuesday | 01:30 GMT | AUD[3] Consumer Price Index (1Q) First quarter inflation figures for Australia are expected to see a modest rebound higher this week, from +1.9% to +2.0% (y/y). But given the predominant stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia at present time – one of patience and desire to see further improvement in growth conditions – it would appear unlikely that the inflation print will lead to a significant rebound higher by the Australian Dollar. Presently, Australian cash rate futures are pointing to only a 26% chance of a rate hike by the RBA’s December meeting. The bigger risk to the Australian Dollar this week, and indeed the Australian economy overall per commentary made by RBA Governor Lowe, would be a continued push higher by US interest rates. Pairs to Watch: AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, AUD/USD[4][5][6] 04/26Thursday | 11:45 GMT | EUR[7] European Central Bank Rate Decision Even though the European Central Bank policy decision on Thursday will not bring forward a new set of Staff Economic Projections, odds remain
