Talking Points:
- The RBA meets on Tuesday while the FOMC[1] meets on Wednesday, although the latter will be markedly more hawkish than the former. - Wednesday and Thursday will see the release of the Q1'18 Eurozone GDP and preliminary April CPI reports, respectively. - The April US Nonfarm Payrolls report is due on Friday, and the US unemployment rate is expected to fall to a new cycle low at 4.0%. Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT[2] for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below. 05/01 Tuesday | 04:30 GMT | AUD[3] Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of Australia meets a few days before its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy is released on Friday, and is expected to keep its main overnight rate on hold at 1.50%. The timing of the meeting doesn’t exactly coincide with the new growth and inflation forecasts being released, but the RBA is likely to clue market participants’ in on its broader view of the economy. With household debt at all-time highs and financial market conditions start to tighten, the RBA seems content on staying pat for the foreseeable future: there is only a 0.5% chance of a rate hike at Tuesday’s meeting, and a 31.2% chance of a hike by December 2018. Pairs to Watch: AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, AUD/USD[4][5][6] 05/02 Wednesday | 09:00 GMT | EUR[7] Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (1Q A) The first look at
