Talking Points:
- The FOMC[1] meets today at 14 EDT/18 GMT and while no rate move is expected, the policy statement should have a hawkish hue. - The DXY[2] Index has rallied into the key 92.50/65 resistance zone produced by the November 2017 swing lows and January 2018 swing highs. - Retail traders[3] are net-long EUR/USD[4] for the first time since April 6, a contrarian sell signal. Looking to learn more about how central banks impact FX markets? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides[5]. The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) has seen its near two-week rally stall at a band of key resistance, the 92.50/65 zone produced by the November 2017 swing lows and January 2018 swing highs. The pause, coming just ahead of the May FOMC statement, is to be expected, as volatility and directional movement in FX markets typically cools off in the run-up to a central bank meeting. While the FOMC decision today will likely produce no change in rates, that doesn't mean that traders will be sitting on their hands for long.Indeed, as a non-SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) and a non-press conference month, the odds of a policy change in May are low to begin with. But given recent changes in inflation - headline CPI and core CPI are above the Fed's medium-term target of +2% (at +2.4% and +2.1% y/y, respectively) and core PCE (+1.9% y/y) is not that far behind - it seems highly likely that the FOMC will make subtle shifts in the language in its policy statement to signal additional tightening steps in the coming months. To this end, Fed
