TALKING POINTS – EURO, ITALY, CPI, ECB, US DOLLAR, GDP, FED, S&P 500
- Euro[1] likely to ignore German CPI, may rise as Italy-linked moves retrace
- US Q1 GDP update, Fed Beige Book unlikely to drive US Dollar[2] volatility
- NZ Dollar gains, Swiss Franc[3] retreats as markets digest in APAC session
German CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to tick up to 1.9 percent, the highest in 13 months. A strong print might have inspired Euro gains but that seems unlikely this time around. Indeed, with another Italian election due in the coming months, even firmer inflationary pressure is probably insufficient to inspire near-term ECB tightening.
Later in the day, an updated set of first-quarter US GDP figures and the Fed Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions seem unlikely to trigger a substantive re-evaluation of the monetary policy outlook. That is likely to keep sentiment trends in focus. A pickup in S&P 500[4] futures hints that might translate into broad-based retracement of recent risk-off moves[5], at least until fresh fodder emerges.
Most G10 FX majors were in consolidation mode in Asia Pacific trade after the prior session’s breakneck volatility. The Swiss Franc retraced lower after surging to a three-month high as worries about political instability in Italy ravaged financial markets and brandished the currency’s appeal as a regional safe haven. The New Zealand Dollar[6] edged up a bit after yesterday’s sentiment-linked losses.
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