ASEAN Outlook Talking Points:
- A hawkish Fed took its toll on PHP, IDR, SGD and MYR as USD[1] rose last week
- ASEAN bloc currencies are vulnerable to escalating trade war fears on US/China
- USD/SGD[2] bulls be careful as the recent break above resistance could be at risk
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As anticipated, ASEAN bloc currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso depreciated against their US counterpart last week. Once the summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un passed without much volatility, FX markets turned to the Fed rate decision next. There, a hawkish tone pushed the greenback higher[4].
Key ASEAN Price Action Last Week:
- USD/IDR ascended to a 3-week high
- USD/MYR climbed to a near five-week high
- USD/SGD rose to its highest point this year so far
- USD/PHP was the most impressive and rose to a 2006 high
The week ahead is arguably toned down from the one prior, with key economic data notably absent from the world’s largest economy. In regards to more monetary policy updates, there will be speeches from policymakers as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a panel in Sintra, Portugal. More reinforcements to last week’s hawkish outlook could send the US Dollar[5] higher.
Locally speaking, we will get the Philippine Central Bank rate decision
