Talking Points:
- Last week’s rather visible move of US Dollar strength continues to hold as we open up a fresh week. DXY[1] pulled-back from the 11-month high on Friday. This comes after a sizable move of strength in the Dollar coming from the European Central Bank’s rate decision, which helped to prod EUR/USD[2] back-down towards the 1.1500-handle.
- While the ECB finally unveiled details for how they’re going to look to gradually exit from QE, the bank also shared a very dovish vantage point with markets by saying that they’re not anticipating rate hikes until at least through the summer of next year. Meanwhile, the Fed has been fairly clear about their intentions, updated most recently last Wednesday when the bank hiked rates for the second time in 2018. The FOMC[3] wants to hike rates five more times by the end of next year, during which time the ECB expects to hike maybe once. This rate divergence is the driver behind the recent move in EUR/USD, but the big question is how much continuation power might be left. We look at the prospect of lower-high resistance in EUR/USD below.
- DailyFX Forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar[4] or the Euro[5] are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page[6]. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders[7]. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide[8].
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