Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Updates to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may tame the recent rebound in EUR/USD[1] as the world’s largest economy is anticipated to add another 195K jobs in June.
Moreover, Average Hourly Earnings are expected to uptick to an annualized 2.8% from 2.7% in May, and signs of stronger job/wage growth should keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on course to implement four rate-hikes in 2018 as the central bank largely achieves its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability.
In turn, the FOMC[2] may largely reiterate that ‘gradually returning interest rates to a more normal level as the economy strengthens is the best way the Fed can help sustain an environment in which American households and businesses can thrive,’ and Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may show a greater willingness to adopt a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy as ‘economic growth appears to have picked up in the current
quarter, largely reflecting a bounceback in household spending.’
However, a batch of lackluster data prints may fuel a larger recovery in EUR/USD as it encourages FOMC officials to retain their current projections for a neutral Fed Funds rate of 2.75% to 3.00%, with the greenback at risk of exhibiting a more bearish behavior over the near-term as it dampens the outlook for growth and inflation.
Impact that the U.S. NFP report has had on EUR/USD during the previous print
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Period |
Data Released |
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Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) |
Pips Change |
