Canadian Dollar, CAD, USD/CAD Price Analysis:
- USD/CAD[1] fell from Fibonacci resistance last week, reverting back to the 1.3900 handle before bouncing up to 1.4000.
- After the fireworks in March, USD[2]/CAD[3] has now spent more than a month digesting prior gains.
- Will USD/CAD bulls re-enter the equation to continue that March major move? Or is more mean reversion or possibly even a deeper pullback on the cards as a shorter-term bearish formation may be building.
USD/CAD Mean Reversion After March Mayhem
Last week saw USD/CAD push up to a fresh multi-week high[4], just after catching a support inflection off of a big zone around the psychological level of 1.4000. Within a 20 pip range around that price are a couple of different Fibonacci levels that, collectively, had helped to previously elicit a resistance inflection.
At this point, that area on the chart appears to be towards the middle of the recent range in the pair, and that mean reversion has been going on for more than a month now following a burst of activity in March. Support has held a couple of different inflections already and that resides around the 1.3850 area; while resistance has been coming in at progressively lower-highs: Around 1.4349 in late-March, at 1.4262 in mid-April and, most recently, around 1.4150 last week.
USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley[5]; USDCAD on Tradingview[6]
Each of the recent swing-highs listed above show around Fibonacci levels derived from a couple of different moves that have already shown in 2020. The first, in gold[7] below, is the 2020 major move, taking the December 31st swing low up to the March high. The second is from
