US benchmark stock indexes – such as the S&P 500[1], Dow Jones[2] and Nasdaq[3] Composite – aimed cautiously higher this past week. Yet, Wall Street has been struggling to find material upside follow-through since late April with the aggressive pace in gains since March noticeably ebbing. The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar[4] and New Zealand Dollar[5] were unable to follow equities.
Most of the upbeat tone occurred early on in the week as Moderna reported degrees of success in a virus vaccine trial. Yet investors’ confidence waned after this was critiqued and as China unveiled a national security law on Hong Kong that sent the Hang Seng tumbling 5.56% on Friday. The haven-linked US Dollar[6] and similarly-behaving Japanese Yen[7] cautiously rose this past week.
Growth-oriented crude oil[8] has been on the rise, suggesting markets may be looking forward to gradual lockdown easing measures across the globe. Central bankers have been warning about the long-term impact on growth, particularly if additional virus waves unfold. Over 38 million citizens in the world’s largest economy have filed for unemployment claims. This may top 40m ahead.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Sentiment data[9] will reveal how attitudes are shaping in a nation where 2/3 of GDP is in consumption. Australia’s Prime Minister speaks to the National Press Club in Canberra as tensions with China brew. These woes may bring back trade war fears, complicating efforts to economically recover from the virus.
What are some unique aspects of trading currencies?[10]
Fundamental Forecasts:
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Lifted Long-Term by Recovery Fund Plan[11]
