- U.S. elections are coming down to the wire, with less than three weeks to go until November 3.
- A mixed composition of Congress could be the worst outcome for financial markets, while full Democratic or Republican control of Washington, D.C. could prove positive, regardless of specific policy outcomes.
- The coronavirus pandemic makes the 2020 election cycle and the reaction in financial markets unlike any other election cycle in American history.
U.S. election season has dawned upon global financial markets, and the U.S. presidential race is coming down to the wire. Amid a haphazard federal response to the coronavirus pandemic that has culminated in U.S. President Donald Trump himself contracting COVID-19, challenger Joe Biden finds himself up double digits in the latest polls conducted through October 13.
A second term of Trump or a first term of Biden could have significantly divergent outcomes for the U.S. economy and global financial markets. But it’s not just the presidential race that matter, it’s not just about Trump and Biden. The composition of the federal government in Washington, D.C. will be a significant determining factor in how different asset classes respond; a mixed Congress could result in years of gridlock, as seen during parts of the Bush, Obama and Trump administrations.
Trump Vs. Biden on Economies and Markets[1]
A decade after The Great Recession, Americans are dealing with the worst economy since The Great Depression. Depending upon the outcome of the November presidential election, the US economy could take very different tracks. While there may be some agreement in terms of trade or infrastructure, Trump and Biden diverge on nearly every other economic policy facet – from taxes, to jobs, to the coronavirus pandemic recovery itself.
How to trade the impact of politics on markets?[2]
The global economy is showing increasing
