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US Dollar Chart

Char created with TradingView[1]

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast – Neutral

  • The US Dollar[2] (DXY Index) remains near yearly lows under the 93 handle
  • Record Covid cases across U.S. see safe-haven bids on the Yen[3] and Franc
  • Lack of high-impact economic data next week leaves Covid fears in the spotlight
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The US Dollar Index (DXY) inched higher this past week as the haven-linked Swiss Franc[4], and Japanese Yen sank on positive vaccine news from Pfizer. The positive results from Pfizer’s phase-3 trial spurred sentiment across markets[5]. Meanwhile, the removal of political risks via the U.S. 2020 election saw an unwinding of pre-election trades.

US Dollar Chart 30-Min

US Dollar, USD/CHF, USD/JPY Chart

Chart created with TradingView[6]

With the election in the rearview mirror, investors appear to be shifting their focus back to the Covid pandemic. The United States remains a hotspot and is at record-breaking levels in daily case counts and hospitalizations. A vaccine approval appears very likely before the end of the year according to public health officials. However, they also mentioned that scaling access through production and distribution will likely take months.

President Trump has vowed for no more lockdowns going forward. This is as several states have begun imposing more stringent social distancing measures nonetheless. Illinois, one of the largest economies in the U.S., is on the verge of another lockdown, according to state officials. In New York State, Governor Andrew Cuomo has ordered a curfew on dining establishments, and New York City may shutter schools this Monday, per officials.

U.S. Covid Statistics

Covid US Statistics Chart

Source: The Covid Tracking Project[7]

Another wave that many have long feared now appears to be underway. This poses the question of how severe the economic fallout could

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