USD[1], NFP[2] Price Analysis & News
- US NFP 559k vs Exp. 650k, Prior Reading Revised Higher
- Higher Than Expected Wage Growth Rounds Up Mixed Report
- US Dollar[3] Falls
NFP Mixed as Headline Misses, Revision Downgraded, While Unemployment Rates Beats
A weaker than expected NFP headline at 559k vs 650k and while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% vs 5.9% expected, this had been due to the 0.1ppt fall in the labour force participation rate. Elsewhere, average earnings beat expectations on both the monthly and yearly rate and thus marking an overall mixed report. For risk assets this is somewhat the goldilocks scenario, given that while over 500k jobs brightens the economic outlook, the miss relative to expectations slightly dampens calls for tapering in the near term.
The USD index had come under selling pressure initially with bulls disappointed by the miss on expectations, especially after the strong ADP report. However, as I mentioned earlier[5], the ADP report hasn’t exactly been the best predictor of the NFP report, leaving USD bulls overly exposed. Gold prices jumped to daily highs amid the pullback in the USD, while treasury yields saw a much more choppy reaction with downside immediately pared.
Find Out More About Non-Farm Payrolls and How to Trade it[6]
DATA OVERVIEW: DailyFX Economic Calendar[7]
Source: DailyFX
USD, Gold, Rates Reaction to NFP: Intra-day Time Frame
Source: Refinitiv
DailyFX[8] provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
