USD/ZAR Outlook:
- USD/ZAR[1] tests critical resistance ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium
- US Dollar[2] strength weighs on Emerging Market (EM) currencies[3]
- Key psychological level of 15.50 may hold bulls at bay, at least for now
USD/ZAR[4] has climbed back above 15.00 after this week’s FOMC Meeting minutes[5] suggested that the Fed may begin tapering in the foreseeable future. With the United States preparing for the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, the more hawkish narrative has supported the greenback against most major currency pairs as well as EM currencies throughout the week.
With South Africa ramping up efforts to distribute the vaccine to the broader population, the political and economical issues continue to hinder further progression.
A further catalyst for price action resides in next week’s economic calendar which has a wide range of important US economic data on the horizon.
DailyFX Economic Calendar [6]
USD/ZAR Technical Analysis
Currently, a break above the key psychological level of 15.00, provided bulls the opportunity to push prices higher towards the next critical resistance of 15.50. Although USD[7]/ZAR has been gaining momentum, key Fibonacci levels may provide additional resistance for the short-term move. The first resistance level to watch for rests at the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 – 2018 move at 15.43 with a break above 15.50 allowing for a teat of the 2021 high at 15.70, the 38.2% retracement of the 2020 -2021 move.
USD/ZAR Weekly Chart
Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa[8], IG
Meanwhile, on the daily time-frame, price action remains well above the 8-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) which has continued to provide support for the imminent move. As the momentum of the uptrend gains traction, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence remains well above
