ECB Update and EUR/USD[1] PriceAnalysis
- ECB leaves all policy measures unchanged as expected, hawkish twist
- ECB press conference at 13:30 GMT – more details ahead.
The European Central Bank left all its monetary policy measures unchanged today, as expected, and trimmed back further its APP bond purchases, giving the release a slightly hawkish twist….
‘the Governing Council today revised the purchase schedule for its APP for the coming months. Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June.’
The ECB also said that it will discontinue net asset purchases under the PEPP program ‘at the end of March 2022’.
Attention now turns to the ECB press conference (13:30 GMT) where President Christine Lagarde will provide more details of the central bank’s staff projections and how the ECB will look to counter growth fears and ongoing price pressures within the single block.
Click for the buildup and live coverage of the ECB Press Conference from 13:15 GMT[2]
The Euro[3] picked up sharply on this hawkish twist with EUR/USD[4] pushing through 1.1100 in short time.
Retail trader data show 59.61% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.48 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 17.65% lower than yesterday and 14.32% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 24.77% higher than yesterday and 18.13% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse
