UK GDP, Jobs Data and BoE Decision Next Week

Pound Sterling Fundamental Forecast: Bearish

• Encouraging UK Jobs data could solidify a 25 basis point hike form the BoE next week
• The ECB’s rather hawkish revelations of potential 50 bps September hike could weigh on GBP^[1]
• UK GDP expected to reveal lower growth for April

UK GDP, Employment Data and BoE Rate Decision up Next

GBP/USD^[2] Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow^[3]

Next week is a rather bumper week in terms of the economic calendar when you consider the amount of high impact US data that deserves to be mentioned within this forecast based purely on how influential USD^[4] data has been recently. This is largely based on the saying ‘when the US catches a cold, the whole world sneezes’.

Better than expected US CPI^[5] and shockingly low University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data (preliminary), on Friday, has thrown a spanner in the works for not just the Fed but for other major central banks too. Aggressive rate hikes are having little effect on rising prices and consumers hold a bleak outlook as far as current and future economic conditions are concerned.

UK Data

Speaking of economic conditions, on Monday UK GDP is expected to have expanded in April when measured against March, albeit at a slower rate, and is set to show a slower rate of expansion year on year, expected to come in at 3.9%, down from 6.4% when measured against April of last year.

On Tuesday, employment data is expected to continue the trend of job gains for March with an estimated 106,000 jobs to have been added, taking the unemployment rate down to 3.6%, potentially. The strong job market is a welcomed sight for the