Fundamental Forecasts:
Australian Dollar Q3 2022 Forecast: Fed’s Lost Credibility is Noted by RBA[1]
The Australian Dollar[2] made a 2-year low against the US Dollar[3] in May as global central banks jockeyed for position in the fight on inflation.
Bitcoin Q3 2022 Forecast: Where’s the Bottom?[4]
If Q1 was difficult for crypto bulls, Q2 was an absolute disaster… As we head into the third quarter, the macro-outlook is still likely to be challenging for crypto, but we could be nearing a cycle low.
British Pound Q3 2022 Forecast: The Bank of England: It’s Time to Decide[5]
The second quarter of the year has been a tricky three months for the Bank of England (BoE) as inflation continued to soar - and is expected to rise further - while growth slowed to a crawl, sparking fears that the UK may enter a recession.
Equities Q3 2022 Forecast: Bearish Momentum Remains Amid Rising Recession Risks[6]
Our Q2 forecast for equities had centered around a mentality shift from a “buy the dip bias” to a “sell the rip” with the Federal Reserve and central banks alike in a tightening overdrive to fight inflation pressures.
Euro Q3 2022 Forecast: Euro May Fall Anew as Debt Crisis Fears Dilute ECB Rate Hikes[7]
The Euro[8] has steadily depreciated against a basket of major currencies since Dec. 2020. Tellingly, that turning point coincided with topping gold prices[9] and the start of a creep higher in Fed rate hike expectations.
Gold Q3 2022 Forecast: Fundamental Outlook Weakens[10]
As anticipated in the Q2’22 gold forecast, the main catalyst that drove gold prices higher in Q1’22 – the Russian invasion of Ukraine – proved to be a short-lived catalyst.
