Talking Points:
- The week of Good Friday is unsurprisingly lighter on the economic calendar – but a few releases will provoke volatility in a lower volume environment. - Data that typically flies under the radar – like a final GDP reading or sentiment – will come to the foreground ahead of Good Friday, Easter, and Passover. - Retail trader positioning[1] has shifted and points to US Dollar weakness, British Pound[2] and Euro strength again. Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT[3] for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below. 03/27 Tuesday | 14:00 GMT | USD[4] Consumer Confidence Index (MAR) In a non-holiday week, Consumer Confidence would normally get overlooked. However, given the relative lack of ‘high’ importance data on the calendar in the lead up to Good Friday, the March sentiment reading counts as top billing. While essentially a contemporaneous indicator of strength in US equity markets, the data print serves as a proxy for how consumers feel about their 401(k)s. Given that the reporting period came before the second-half of the month swing lower in US stocks, it seems possible that another reading near all-time highs could result. Accordingly, any US Dollar rally around the data would be worth fading. Pairs to Watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY Index, Gold[5][6][7][8] 03/28 Wednesday | 12:30 GMT | USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q T) The third and final reading of annualized US GDP in Q4’17 is expected to come in at a revised growth rate of 2.7% from the +2.5% prior revision, still a stark decline relative to the +3.2% growth rate in Q3’17, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Overall, there still seems to be a sharp divide between ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ economic data, with confidence readings surging without a commensurate gain in actual economic activity. The New York Fed Nowcast forecast sees last quarter’s growth at +3.0%, a bit more rich than most surveys. Regardless of the print, any reading near +2.5% should keep the Fed’s focus on another rate hike in June. Pairs to Watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY Index, Gold 03/29 Thursday | 12:00 GMT | EUR[9] German Consumer Price Index (MAR P) The European Central Bank sees EUR/USD finishing 2018 at 1.1700, and at its current exchange rate, it’s more than 6% above the central bank’s forecast. Year-over-year, the Euro trade-weighted exchange rate is up by +7.6%, a veritable headwind for inflation.Given that the ECB has made clear it wants to see inflation
