- Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence Survey to Improve for Third Consecutive Month in March. Index Currently Sits at Highest Level Since November 2000.
- EUR/USD[1] Breaks Out of Narrow Range & Initiates Bullish Sequence. Relative Strength Index (RSI) Snaps Bearish Formation.
Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Confidence
Another uptick in the Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence survey may boost the appeal of the U.S. dollar[2] as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months.
A further improvement in household sentiment should keep the FOMC[3] on course to further normalize monetary policy in 2018 as ‘the Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate,’ and Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may continue to strike a hawkish outlook at the next interest rate decision on May 2 as ‘inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up in coming months and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.’
However, a dismal development may produce a bearish reaction in the greenback as it dampens the Fed’s scope to adopt a more aggressive hiking-cycle, with EUR/USD at risk of making a run at the 2018-high (1.2556) as the pair breaks out a narrow range.
Impact that the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey had on EUR/USD during the previous release
|
Period |
Data Released |
Estimate |
Actual |
Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) |
Pips Change (End of Day post event) |
|
FEB 2018 |
02/27/2018 15:00:00 GMT |
126.5 |
130.8 |
-34 |
-42 |
February 2018 U.S. Consumer Confidence
EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence survey climbed to 130.8 from a revised 124.3 in January to mark the highest reading since November 2000, with the gauge for future expectations highlighting a similar dynamic as the index increased to 109.7 from 104.0 during the same period.
The greenback gained ground following the above-forecast print, with EUR/USD slipping below the 1.2250 region to close the day at 1.2232. Want more insight? Join DailyFX Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio LIVE[4]to cover the Consumer Confidence survey.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
EUR/USD appears to be on track to test the 2018-high (1.2556) as the it clears the monthly opening range, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exhibiting a similar dynamic as it breaks out of the bearish formation carried
