The Canadian Dollar[1] has been gaining steam since the March reversal with the USD/CAD decline now approaching initial measured targets. Key employment reports from both the U.S. and Canada are on tap tomorrow and while prices could see some upside from here, the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside.
USD/CAD Daily Price Chart
Technical Outlook: Last month we highlighted a key reversal off confluence resistance in USD/CAD[2], shifting our focus lower price. The subsequent sell-off has broken below the March lows with the pair now testing interim support at 61.8% Fibonacci[3] extension at 1.2752. Note that the pivot back below the 2012 trendline (red) leaves prices vulnerable to further losses while below the late 2017 swing highs.
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USD/CAD 240min Price Chart
Notes: A closer look at price action see’s USD/CAD trading within the confines of a well-defined descending pitchfork formation[6] with the lower 50-line converging on Fibonacci support today at 1.2752. Note that we’ve marked some divergence in intraday momentum on this decline and suggests price may see some near-term recovery off this mark.
Interim resistance stands at 1.2845 backed by 1.2890/95 with bearish invalidation set to the October high / slope confluence at ~1.2916- a breach above this level would risk a rally back up towards the high-day close at 1.3078 (not the favored scenario).
A break lower from here targets two major support objectives at 1.2686/92 (where the 50% retracement converges on the 100-day moving average) and 1.2634 (where the 100% extension converges on the 200-day moving average and slope support. I would be on the lookout for a larger correction off one of these levels.
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Bottom line: The medium-term outlook remains weighted to the short-side in USDCAD[8] but prices are testing near-term support ahead of tomorrow’s event risk. Keep in mind we get the release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Canada Employment at the same time (8:30ET) with the event likely to fuel added volatility in the respective crosses. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading strength while below 1.2916 with a break of today’s low needed to fuel the next leg down.
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USD/CAD IG Client Positioning
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment[10]shows traders are net-short USDCAD- the ratio stands at -1.46 (40.7% of traders are long) –weak bullishreading
